There is an amusing clip on Youtube of Jim Cramer yelling, “They know NOTHING!” Watch Here

It is probably the truest utterance he has ever uttered.  All of the gurus you see on the news who proclaim stocks are done or bonds will finally crash after 30 years literally know nothing.

Today Marketwatch had the following headling: “7 signs the stock market is ready to run smack into a wall “

I didn’t bother to read the article because I know I can find “7 signs the stock market is ready to explode!”  Neither article will have anything more than WAGs (Wild Ass Guesses).

Always ask yourself two questions.  If these people really know, why are they telling me?  And why are they doing it for free on Marketwatch?  I mean come on!  Why aren’t they so rich they don’t have time to tell us what is going to happen as they are too busy spending their money?

Understand one thing:  in the long run, no one knows any more about where markets are going than you do.  I know I have no clue except that over long periods of time, stocks always go up.  The Dow 30 was 1005 when I entered finance.  From there to 22000, there has always been one guru after another that exclaimed the End is Near.  While you though 2008 was the end, it turned out to be a stumble on the way to 22000.

I also know that for the last 37 years, bond yields continue to fall.  My one regret is I didn’t keep a log of every time some guru said rates were done going down over almost 4 decades.  I remember in 2015, I was working for Chase and the JP Morgan guru put out a piece that bond yields would finally turn the corner and go up that year.  Wrong.   There is no sign of any increase in rates and there hasn’t been one for the last 37 years.

The Dow Gold Ratio Strategy tells us when stocks are tuning down and it is showing signs now of no such thing.  Gold is still is a long term secular downtrend and will remain so until it isn’t.  The DGR will show us that too.