Back in mid-July, BofA’s chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett predicted that the “most dangerous moment for the market will come in 3 or 4 months.” Well, we are now “between 3 and 4” months since the forecast and no correction has occurred. The Dow Jones 30 Industrials in up 7% since then. The most dangerous moment we have experienced since then, ironically, is today’s modest selloff on the 30 year anniversary of Black Monday.

Like any good fortune teller, he now makes a new forecast. “We believe sometime between Thanksgiving & Valentine’s Day. We expect >10% correction (say from SPX 2670 toward 2400.)”

I’m not picking on Michael but this is a good example of They Know Nothing. Trying to predict what the market is going to do is impossible. These prognosticators just make new predictions when the first one doesn’t play out.

There is a big difference between talking about what the market is GOING to do versus what the market IS DOING. Michael hopes to predict what the market is GOING to do. The track records of these types of market gurus is no better and probably worse than flipping a coin.

The Dow Gold Ratio Strategy doesn’t predict anything. Instead, it points out what the market IS DOING now. And now, it is going up. We stay long until the DGR Strategy tells us the market is not going up. It’s pretty simple and helps us ignore fortune tellers.